W.A. - State of Uncertainty

as posted on Antony Green's Election Blog


By Antony Green

Trying to understand the result of the Western Australian election on Saturday was complicated by uncertainties over the count. But in the cool light of a Sunday afternoon, it appears that the possibility of Labor being re-elected cannot be discounted.

Labor went into the election with a notional 38 seats, 30 seats required for a governing majority. Labor has definitely lost eight seats to the Liberal Party, Kingsley, Darling Range, Bunbury, Ocean Reef, Jandakot, Swan Hills, Southern River and Mount Lawley. The count is uncertain, but it also appears to have lost Morley. Labor also appears to have lost the seat of Kwinana to a Labor-leaning Independent. Labor has four seats in doubt, meaning that Labor appears to have a certain 25 seats.

The Liberal Party have a definite 22 seats including Morley. They came into the election with a notional 15 seats. The eight seats listed as Labor losses are now in the Liberal column, but the seat of Moore has been lost to the National Party, Kalgoorlie to an Independent, while the notionally Liberal seat of Albany remains in doubt with Labor leading. The Liberal Party also appear to have gained the seat of Nedlands from Independent Sue Walker.

The National party have four seats with the gain of Moore. The Liberal-leaning Independents have been re-elected in Churchlands and probably Alfred Cove. The two other independents are John Bowler in Kalgoorlie and Carol Adams in Kwinana. Both are viewed as Labor leaning.

Four seats remain in doubt. Liberal held though Labor represented Albany is currently 117 votes on the Labor side of the ledger. The other three doubtful seats are the Labor seats of Riverton, where the Liberals lead by 34, Forrestfield where Labor is around 200 ahead, plus Wanneroo where counting from the Electoral Commission is not shedding much light on the final result. On Saturday night, Wanneroo had been conceeded by Labor.

If Labor can win three of these four seats, and they currently lead in two, then Labor plus John Bowler and Carol Adams could form a narrow majority. Not a comfortable majority, but a majority none the less.

With four year terms and such a finely balanced Parliament, political journalists are already licking their lips in anticipation.

as posted on Antony Green's Election Blog